Yesterday, I looked a few things that were off interest to me where the PECOTA projections were concerned. For the most part, I would agree with what was said in this article that talked about the release of PECOTA and how it is pretty accurate these days.
The only downside, of course, is that PECOTA Week comes with few surprises, anymore. If you’re a fan engaged enough with the game to care about projections, you’ve probably got a rough but accurate idea of what PECOTA is going to say about most guys (and, thus, most teams) before you click through to the standings page or the spreadsheet. The model is always being honed and improved upon, but we’re two decades into this ritual now. Many of you have started to feel and roll with the projections, and even to anticipate them.
So, when it comes to the team’s pitching staff, we should more or less guess what it is going to say. The pitching staff has been pretty good the past few seasons, so the projections are likely going to be kind.
Still, there were some interesting observations.
Cristopher Sanchez: still an Ace
There was maybe a tinge of hesitancy when talking about Sanchez last year and letting him ascend into the conversation of “Top 5 starters in the game” because of his background. He struggled to get his footing as a starter for a long time before finally having it start to click in 2023. His season in 2024 was very good, but again, without the background of being a top prospect, there was at least to be some doubt he could keep it up.
Not only did he keep it up, he was the runner-up in the NL Cy Young voting last season, comfortably entered that conversation about being one of the five best pitchers in the game and if PECOTA has anything to say about it, will remain there. By WARP, PECOTA has Sanchez being the fifth best starter behind Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Garrett Crochet and Bryan Woo. By DRA- (Deserved Run Average, scaled where numbers below 100 are good), Sanchez projects to be again fifth, behind the same pitchers plus Chris Sale and Cole Ragans.
If there was any doubt that Sanchez is one of the best pitchers in the game today, there should be none. His transformation is truly one of the best developmental stories in this organization in a long, long time.
We really should just devote a day to Sanchez.
Zack Wheeler’s top comps are really fun
One of the things PECOTA likes to do is draw on historical comparables to show you what each pitcher should remind you. Obviously, when you’re being compared to the greats, you’re one of the great pitchers and vice versa with being compared to the historical road apples. Wheeler’s comparables are pretty fun: Bob Gibson, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
Now, this isn’t prime Bob Gibson we’re talking about. It’s 36 year old Bob Gibson. And 36 year old Bob Gibson was no slouch. Neither were Scherzer nor Verlander. In fact, these were their lines during their age 36 season:
Gibson, age 36: 34 GS, 278 IP, 7.3 H/9, 6.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 139 ERA+, 7.1 bWAR
Scherzer, age 36: 30 GS, 179 1/3 IP, 6.0 H/9, 11.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 167 ERA+, 6.1 bWAR
Verlander, age 36: 34 GS, 223 IP, 5.5 H/9, 12.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 179 ERA+, 7.4 bWAR, 1 Cy Young award
These are all time great seasons for any pitcher, let alone ones that are already getting mail from AARP. To see that PECOTA puts Wheeler in that company is a reminder that his skillset should age well as the years continue to pile on.
However – and it’s a pretty large “however” – none of those pitchers were coming off the injury that Wheeler is coming off of. We simply have no idea, nor does PECOTA have any idea, of well Wheeler will perform once he finally steps back on a major league mound. We can make assumptions, but without a ton of players to compare him to, we just have no way of being able to know for sure how he’ll be. If PECOTA is any indicator, he’ll be just fine, but the injury is the unknown this season and the #1 storyline that will weave itself through the 2026 season.
The bullpen finally has some strikeout potential
One of the issues the Phillies have felt they have had with their bullpen is that there wasn’t much swing and miss stuff outside of one or two relievers. It seemed to be a point of emphasis in their offseason dealings this year, to make sure that they get pitchers who don’t need to depend on the defense to get out and do so, particularly, from the right side.
Now with an overhauled bullpen, PECOTA thinks they have a group that will be able to strike out hitters with some regularity. These are the projected K/9 numbers for the top seven arms that should be in the bullpen:
J. Duran: 10.39 K/9
O. Kerkering: 9.45 K/9
B. Keller: 8.40 K/9
J. Alvarado: 9.24 K/9
T. Banks: 7.64 K/9
Z. McCambley: 10.33 K/9
J. Bowlan: 9.08 K/9
The Keller number is probably a bit skewed by his just being a full time reliever for one season and most his past K/9 numbers were below seven. His 2025 season was closer to 10, so there is some built in skepticism.
And Tanner Banks isn’t really known for striking people out anyway, so that projection doesn’t really bother me.
What is fun is that they have a bunch of arms that can now get strikeouts late in games. We’ll see if a lot of this comes true, but if PECOTA is right about this, they are a lot deeper than last year.