Predicting upsets in College Basketball this week

Last week was one of our best in this column. After hitting Iowa, Kansas State, Missouri, and Wake Forest, we were 4-for-4 in predicting upsets heading into the late window Wednesday night before USC completely laid an egg against Illinois. The goal this week, although unlikely, is to improve on that and go 5-for-5. Here are the predictions for the upsets this week in college basketball.

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Texas over Florida

Feb 21, 2026; Athens, Georgia, USA; Texas Longhorns center Matas Vokietaitis (8) tries to score over Georgia Bulldogs center Somto Cyril (2) at Stegeman Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

This is the biggest game of the season for the Longhorns as the defending champs come to town, presenting an incredible opportunity for a much-needed Quad 1A win. If this game were in Gainesville, I wouldn’t pick this way. But I think the home crowd, and maybe the home whistle, can be huge. Texas big man Matas Vokietaitis is 2nd nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes with 9, and if he can get Florida’s massive frontcourt in foul trouble, that would force the Gators to change their rotation and play out of their comfort zone.

Florida State over Miami

The Seminoles are playing their best ball at the right time, winners of 6 of their last 7. They’ve started playing their younger and more promising players, like Thomas Bassong and Martin Sommerville, for more minutes. Crazy how that leads to more wins. They’ve already beaten Miami on the road, and now get the Hurricanes back at home for the rematch.

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Illinois over Michigan

Feb 21, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Illinois guard Keaton Wagler (23) drives to the basket past UCLA forward Tyler Bilodeau (34) during the second half at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom Financial. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

As we saw with the Duke game last Saturday, very few teams are equipped to beat the Wolverines. You have to have not only the requisite size to defend Michigan’s frontcourt, but you also need floor spacing offensively and the ability to limit Michigan’s transition scoring. That profile screams Illinois to me, and add that to the fact that this game is in Champaign, and I don’t think Michigan has a natural matchup to defend Keaton Wagler.

Dayton over St. Louis

It’s easy to forget that the Flyers were a popular preseason pick to win the Atlantic 10 before a slew of injuries derailed a promising start to the season. They’re now fully healthy, winners of three straight, and should have a raucous home crowd to take on their bitter rival (pundits have been comparing this St. Louis team to 2020 Dayton, and Dayton fans will take that personally). French center Amael L’Etang is now back healthy and will be a nightmare matchup for Robbie Avila, and I think the fully healthy Flyers can get this done.

Marquette over Georgetown

Feb 18, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Marquette Golden Eagles guard Nigel James Jr. (0) reacts after scoring a basket during the second half against the St. John’s Red Storm at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

It might not be outwardly obvious in the midst of a three-game losing streak, but the Marquette Golden Eagles are playing better basketball as we approach the stretch run of the season. This is largely because they’ve turned the offense over to exciting freshman Nigel James Jr., and he will be the best player on the floor in this game. Meanwhile, Georgetown is coming off an abysmal 51-47 loss to Seton Hall, where they shot under 20% from three.