Jake Irvin fired two scoreless innings in his first start of the spring. That should be good news, but the start made me more bearish on the right hander. This is due to his drop in velocity. He only averaged 90.3 MPH on his 4-seam and 91.1 MPH on his sinker. This continues an ongoing trend for Irvin.
Sure, you can chalk some of this up to building up in the first start of the spring. However, this is a continuation of a multi-year trend. Velocity should have been a point of emphasis for Irvin this offseason, so it is disappointing to see him throw even slower.
When Irvin came in the league in 2023, his 4-seam averaged 94.5 MPH and his sinker averaged 93.9. In 2024, he was still effective, but his velocity dropped off a bit, especially in the second half. His 4-seam averaged 93.9 MPH and his sinker averaged 93.3.
Last year was by far the worst year of Irvin’s career. It should be no surprise to hear that his velocity dropped even further. His 4-seamer averaged 92.4 MPH and his sinker averaged 91.9. Irvin’s velocity has dropped two ticks over the last couple of years, and he struggled to average 90 MPH in this start.
Sure, it is early spring, but the alarm bells are ringing for me. We know that Irvin is at his best when he is able to sit in that 94 MPH range. Yesterday, he was not even able to touch 94.
I always go back to that dominant outing Irvin had on July 4th of 2024 to see what he looks like at his best. That afternoon he went 8 scoreless against the Mets and was absolutely shoving. His fastball was consistently in the 93-96 MPH range, and it was playing like a plus pitch. With the heater firmly in the low-90’s now, it does not play as well.
I was really hoping to see Irvin sitting 93-94 yesterday, but that did not happen. The hardest pitch he threw was 92.9 MPH. Hopefully that can tick up as we get deeper into spring, but I feel like it is unrealistic to expect him to get back to that 2023-2024 velocity at this point. I am not sure what happened, but that velocity seems to be gone.
Like a lot of Nats pitchers, Irvin does seem to be going away from his fastball. Yesterday, Irvin was using a six pitch mix where you were not quite sure about which pitch was coming. He threw the four-seamer, the curveball, the sinker, the cutter and the changeup at least 10% of the time. Being unpredictable could be a way to offset some of that lost velocity.
However, the ceiling of a right hander throwing 90 MPH is quite capped. There is so much nasty stuff in the game right now. Having such limited velocity is a real detriment. You can survive if you have a deep pitch mix and excellent control. However, I think Irvin’s control is good but not great and none of his secondary pitches are dominant.
Irvin needs the velocity to get back to being the solid number 4 starter he looked like he was becoming. If he struggles out of the gate this year, his rotation spot could be in jeopardy. Guys like Mitchell Parker, Riley Cornelio and Luis Perales will be waiting in the wings. They will be ready to roll if Irvin struggles.
Around this time last year I expressed my concerns about Irvin’s velocity and was proven right. This year I am ringing the alarm bells again. It is early in Spring Training, so Irvin’s velocity could bounce back. However, we are seeing a multi-year trend continue into 2026. That is not a great sign for the 29 year old right hander.