3 Early NFL Win Total Over/Unders to Target

We are still 15 days away from the beginning of NFL free agency and two months away from the NFL draft, but season-long win totals have been posted at DraftKings, and they offer our first real signal of how sportsbooks are pricing the 2026 competitive landscape. There are 10 teams with their over/under priced in double digits – the Ravens, Bills, Lions, Packers, Chiefs, Chargers, Rams, Eagles, Seahawks and 49ers are being offered at over/under 10.5 wins. The defending AFC Champion New England Patriots have their win total set at over/under 9.5. At the other end, the Dolphins and Cardinals open at over/under 4.5, reflecting full-scale rebuild expectations. Below, we take a look at where there could be value on the futures market before free agency and the draft reshape the board.

Early NFL Win Over/Under Bets to Target

Chicago Bears Under 9.5 Wins

-120, DraftKings In 2025, the Bears finished with an NFL-best +22 turnover differential en route to their first winning season since 2018. Since the league expanded to 32 teams, there have been 13 instances in which a team finished +20 or better in turnover differential in a single season – none of those teams improved their record the following year, and eight of those 13 teams saw their win total regress by multiple games.

But many of those other teams didn’t have an emerging franchise quarterback and a brainiac for a head coach! That’s the thing about turnovers, though – they often make the overall picture look really good, but turnovers are often more random than many people realize. Interceptions can be a result of a poorly thrown ball, but they can also occur because of a tipped ball or a pass that bounces off a receiver’s hands. Similarly, a quarterback may make a poor throw, only for the defense to drop what looked like a surefire interception. Caleb Williams finished 22nd out of 38 qualified quarterbacks in turnover-worthy throw rate, per our StatsHub charting. He was among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL on a down-to-down basis, too, ranking 33rd in success rate – only ahead of a much-maligned group of names including J.J. McCarthy, Joe Flacco, Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel. Williams may have a difficult-to-quantify ability to extend plays and hit big throws at a more sustainable rate than some of his peers, and it certainly helps that he has a highly respected offensive mind as his head coach. Nevertheless, turnovers tend to regress from one year to the next and the arrow is firmly trending towards negative regression for the Bears in 2026.

New York Jets Over 5.5 Wins

+105, DraftKings In 2025, the New York Jets became the first team in the NFL expansion era to go an entire regular season without recording a single interception. There have been only two teams to record fewer than 5 interceptions while finishing the year with a -15 turnover differential or worse – both of those teams improved their record by multiple wins the following year.

This past fall, the Jets had the worst quarterback room in the NFL by a wide margin. Justin Fields was their best contributor, and he finished 33rd out of 38 quarterbacks in EPA/dropback and 30th in success rate. Brady Cook started five games for New York, scoring 10 points or fewer in four of them. The Jets lost each of his starts by at least 23 points. Among 42 quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts last season, Cook ranked 42nd in EPA/dropback, 42nd in DVOA and 42nd in success rate. In 2026, the Jets get home games against the Dolphins, Raiders, Vikings and Browns. On the road, they have what appear to be winnable matchups against the Dolphins, Titans and Cardinals. New York’s turnover luck will be better next year. Their quarterback room could be significantly better based on the options they have in the draft and free agency. Simply, there is only room for improvement for the Jets in 2026, on both sides of the ball. 

Pittsburgh Steelers Under 8.5 Wins

-145, DraftKings

In the last seven seasons, the Steelers are an NFL-best +62 in turnover differential. No other team is better than +47 in turnover differential in that same span – a phenomenon that came to be known as “Tomlin Voodoo.” In 2026, however, Pittsburgh will have a different head coach for the first time in 20 years. It’s also increasingly looking like Aaron Rodgers will be back as the team’s starting quarterback, which isn’t necessarily a good thing. Though Rodgers had good moments in 2025, he still finished only 22nd in EPA/dropback and 33rd in success rate among 42 quarterbacks with 150-plus pass attempts. Another year older, it’s possible we see Rodgers regress even further. If the team’s aging defense isn’t able to continue their improbable run of winning the turnover battle, we could see the bottom finally fall out for a Pittsburgh franchise that has been overperforming expectations for years.