Projection systems by their nature tend to be conservative, which is why it’s rare to see such a clear outlier. When it comes to predicting baseball records, the Dodgers are standing out.
FanGraphs has the Dodgers projected for about 100 wins, 99.6 to be exact as of Tuesday morning. It’s notable because only one other team is projected for even 90 wins, with the Braves at 91.5. Similar for PECOTA projections at Baseball Prospectus, with the Dodgers at 105.2 wins and the next-best team (Mariners) at 93.1.
Seeing a projection of 105 wins is eye-popping given all the regression that goes into these systems, and it’s not the first time for this era of Dodgers baseball. Last year they were projected for 104 wins, the highest PECOTA projected win total since 2009.
“Baseball projections are supposed to end with most teams bunched up together because that’s just how baseball works: the small talent disparity between most squads and the sport’s inherently random nature come together to create tons of equality,” wrote Mario Delgado Genzor at Baseball Prospectus. “This is not supposed to be possible, for one team to be so clearly head and shoulders above the rest.”
The Dodgers now been projected by PECOTA for triple-digit wins in six of the last seven seasons, but it makes sense given that they have a .629 winning percentage dating back to 2017, a 102-win pace over 162 games, with seasons of 111, 106, 106, 104, and 100 wins during that time. They finished with the best record in MLB in four of those nine years, and were one win shy of the best record two other times.
It’s a little bit funny that the Dodgers won the World Series in each of the last two years without winning 100 games. Granted, their 98 wins were the most in MLB in 2024, but they were downright slumming it to 93 wins last year but had every key player healthy in October.
The Dodgers added premium free agents Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz to shore up their biggest weaknesses, and boast enviable pitching depth that might be their best to date. Their ultimate goal obviously is to win another World Series, but they’ll have to win a lot of games in the regular season to get there.
Today’s question is how many games will the Dodgers win in the 2026 regular season? Let us know in the comments below.