UFC Houston preview and predictions: Can Sean Strickland make another title push?
Everything's bigger in Texas — except for UFC Houston. But the event's middleweight headliner between Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez still carries stakes into the Toyota Center on Saturday, Feb. 21.
The UFC's new Paramount audience is set to get its first introduction to Strickland, which could be cause for concern anytime the former middleweight champion gets hold of a microphone. But Strickland's primary concern this week is the man known as "Fluffy." It's been a full year since Strickland lost his title rematch with then-champion Dricus du Plessis; in his rebound effort, Strickland will have to halt a surging contender and snap Hernandez's eight-fight win streak. This could be the former champ's last chance, while simultaneously acting as Hernandez's potential launchpad to stardom and a title tilt.
Aside from the main event, UFC Houston may sprinkle in some other name value across the board. For the most part, however, it's a one-fight card.
👑 UFC Houston lineup Crown grade: C- 👑
Betting odds via BetMGM.
185 pounds: Sean Strickland (+225) vs. Anthony Hernandez (-285)
There are tons of questions around Strickland after his last appearance in the Octagon. Clearly, the former champ needed to make some changes, and hopefully, he did that during his unpredictable — but on-brand — suspension.
One thing is guaranteed: Strickland will bring his patented, plodding, defensive, jab-and-teep-heavy striking approach to the matchup. Hernandez is no slouch on the feet, but should be outmatched by Strickland's technical prowess. Ultimately, there's little reason to think it'll matter though — Hernandez is an absolute shark, dragging nearly every opponent he gets his hands onto into his deep-water grappling.
Strickland has historically displayed pretty serviceable takedown defense, despite getting taken down numerous times by the quirky du Plessis. The problem against Hernandez is that Strickland hasn't fought this relentless of a wrestling force since arguably his welterweight clash with Kamaru Usman all the way back in 2017. In pre-fight interviews, Strickland has shown respect to Hernandez, touting him as the best wrestler in the division — high praise, and subtle shade to the champion Khamzat Chimaev.
Extended layoffs haven't been an issue for Strickland in the past, and his cardio has always been a strong point. Hernandez is simply going to make him work more to escape positions, preventing Strickland from getting off much offense. This matchup really could look like du Plessis vs. Chimaev lite, meaning a shining showing from Hernandez.
Pick: Hernandez
170 pounds: Geoff Neal (-200) vs. Uroš Medić (+165)
File this one under: “Oh … we’re doing this, huh?”
Geoff Neal is a ranked welterweight who’s gone rounds with killers. Uroš Medić is a chaos engine who fights like the building is on fire. Somehow, the UFC looked at that dynamic and said, “Yes. Perfect.”
I'm here for that. It just wasn't expected.
Neal is the far cleaner technician — sharp counter left, composed footwork and enough patience to let reckless opponents self-destruct. The issue is that he occasionally fights like he’s waiting for a dinner reservation instead of a brawl. Against Medić, that’s risky. The Serbian doesn’t believe in easing into fights. He sprints out of the gate, throwing heat and daring you to survive it.
If Neal keeps it long and disciplined, this could look like a veteran calmly putting out a brush fire. But if Medić clips him early and turns it into a bar fight? Suddenly, a “why was this booked?” matchup gets very interesting.
On paper, Neal’s experience and polish should carry him. He's fought the more established competition, and I'm not sold on his chin being cracked off a single — yet spectacular — knockout loss.
Pick: Neal
145 pounds: Dan Ige (+185) vs. Melquizael Costa (-225)
Dan Ige is going to have to change that "50K" nickname in the Paramount era.
Ige is the definition of dependable, both inside and outside of the Octagon — just ask Diego Lopes. He’s compact, powerful and durable enough to hang in the pocket longer than most featherweights should. The issue is consistency. He’ll have moments of brilliance, then give away minutes waiting for the perfect exchange.
Costa, meanwhile, is the kind of aggressive technician the UFC likes to fast-track, and the dude has been on fire in his past five wins. He's become a surprise personal favorite on this run. Costa throws in volume, mixes levels well and doesn’t seem particularly interested in fighting at a slow pace. If he can keep Ige backing up and force extended combinations, he could rack up rounds before Ige ever really settles in. Overall, he'll have a speed and pace advantage.
The difference here is experience. Ige has shared the cage with elite competition and knows how to adjust mid-fight. Costa’s upside is real, but this is a significant step up in composure and durability.
Ige will need to keep it tight, pressure at the right moments and land the heavier shots. He can remind everyone why he’s still hovering around the rankings. But for my money, Costa is moving and grooving. His output will steal it and earn him a spot in the rankings.
Pick: Costa
265 pounds: Serghei Spivac (+125) vs. Ante Delija (-150)
I know the topic is being beaten to death, but that's because it's so true. It's practically impossible to care about heavyweight in 2026.
Serghei Spivac does his best work once he gets his hands on you — clinch, trip, suffocate. It’s not pretty, but it’s effective for a heavyweight. The concern is surviving the opening exchanges long enough to start that grind.
Ante Delija brings real power and forward pressure — and at heavyweight, that’s always live. If he keeps it standing early, Spivac could have problems. This matchup should lack the sloppiness seen in recent weeks, but don't put anything past these boys. That's admittedly asking a lot.
In terms of natural talent, there's more to like about Delija, barring any eye-poke tomfoolery.
Pick: Delija
170 pounds: Jacobe Smith (-300) vs. Josiah Harrell (+240)
11-0 on each side? You just have to love an undefeated mirror matchup.
Despite the fun stats, Jacobe Smith is the slicker, more composed striker. Patient, sharp and comfortable fighting at range, he'll show Josiah Harrell who's progressed at a faster rate.
The fight likely hinges on who dictates tempo. Expect Smith to keep it clean and technical, controlling the exchanges. If Harrell closes the distance and forces scrambles, it gets a lot less predictable, but I'm not sold he'll be much better off in that department either.
Pick: Smith
185 pounds: Zachary Reese (+135) vs. Michel Pereira (-160)
Michel Pereira's career remains one of the strangest of the past decade. Had his October 2024 fight against Saturday's main-eventer, Hernandez, gone differently, perhaps it's him headlining UFC Houston against Strickland. Instead, the man has floundered since that fateful, soul-snatching defeat.
At his best, Pereira has been the ultimate unpredictable showman. So much so that adding more discipline lately has arguably cost him. When he fights within himself, he’s a terrifying blend of athleticism and opportunistic grappling. When he doesn’t … well, you remember the backflips. But we love the backflips. Can we get some more backflips?
Zachary Reese is tall, dangerous and carries real finishing upside, especially early. But he can be hittable. The gap in experience between the two is vast, and Reese's style is poised to give Pereira space to explode, which is usually a bad long-term plan.
Betting on Pereira right now feels admittedly dumb. He's no longer reliable in any facet, but this is an absolute make-or-break weekend with a potential fourth straight loss staring him in the face.
Pick: Pereira
Preliminary Notes
Punahele Soriano has turned over somewhat of a new leaf at welterweight. Undefeated in his first three fights, the Hawaiian has been a model of consistency. It's been a pleasant surprise and much-needed shift after closing out his middleweight run with a 1-4 record in a five-fight stretch. That being said, Ramiz Brahimaj poses a real threat to halt his momentum in what could be the most fun and competitive fight on the card's first half.
Carlos Leal vs. Chidi Njokuani also presents similar potential, but outside of that, don't expect to miss much until UFC Houston's main card begins.
Quick picks:
Carlos Leal Miranda (-125) def. Chidi Njokuani (+105)
Alibi Idiris (-135) def. Ode' Osbourne (+110)
Alden Coria (-275) def. Luis Gurule (+225)
Joselyne Edwards (-300) def. Nora Cornolle (+240)
Punahele Soriano (+110) def. Ramiz Brahimaj (-135)
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (-210) def. Philip Rowe (+170)
Jordan Leavitt (+320) def. Yadier del Valle (-425)
Carli Judice (-800) def. Juliana Miller (+550)
Tuipulotu on red alert as Scotland face wounded Welsh
It is said that the bookmakers are never wrong. It is a fallacy, of course. They have been wrong about Scotland twice in a row now.
They made Gregor Townsend's team warm favourites against Italy in round one and made them clear underdogs against England in round two. Bookies are human, some of the time.
The Scots have won the past three against Wales - two hairy experiences and one landslide.
They have not won four-in-a-row against the Welsh since the 1920s, but they are screaming hot favourites.
It is doubtful they have ever been so fancied going into a Six Nations match - or a Five Nations match, for that matter.
- Van der Merwe returns from Scotland wilderness with a point to prove
- Friends reunited as Tandy prepares to face Scotland
- Costelow and Hamer-Webb start for Wales v Scotland
The best price available on Scotland is 1-10, with Wales on offer at 9-1 for anybody brave enough to accept. Business is reported as being slow on that front.
Other firms are making Scotland 1-16 and even 1-18. Basically, the odds-layers are saying the Scots cannot lose, which is a theory that will sit very uneasily with the away fans.
Sione Tuipulotu does not strike you as the kind of captain who places much store in what these people are predicting. Speaking on the eve of the game, he said the dejection of losing to Italy still lives with him and he is reluctant to let it go.
"That feeling still lingers," the centre said, before once again mentioning the desperation his players felt going into the Calcutta Cup and the need to tap into those same emotions in Cardiff.
"I put pressure on the group to be desperate out there and show desperation," he added.
"It also makes me a little bit frustrated because the week before we couldn't against Italy for a lot of reasons. So that feeling is still there for me and I hope it stays with me for the rest of the tournament, because I think it's needed.
"I'm still very desperate. I just know you can't lose two games in this tournament and think you're going to be there at the back end for anything.
"In order for us to stay in this tournament, we've got to be just as desperate, just as emotional, just as clinical as we were last week."
We are in new territory here with the super soaraway Scots. Or, to be more precise, the weak and weary Welsh.
More than Scotland's systematic and thrilling defeat of England, those odds are a reflection of where Steve Tandy's team are at.
Thirteen consecutive losses in the Six Nations, 23 defeats in their past 25 games (they beat Japan twice), an average of 51 points conceded in their first two games of the championship after losing 73-0 to the Springboks in the autumn and shipping 52 to the All Blacks.
Everything points to an away win. Everything.
Scotland are classier, more dangerous, more cohesive, more confident. They have a backline to die for - 111 Test tries between them, with another 49 from their three backs on the bench - and a pack of forwards that should be more than good enough to tame any Welsh fire.
Tuipulotu said that the returning Blair Kinghorn and Duhan van der Merwe are "war ready".
You get the impression Scotland's in-house messaging has been all about keeping the foot on the accelerator rather than coasting, as they have done in the past, most notably in 2022 when - after beating England - they were insipid in defeat in Cardiff next time out.
Tuipulotu is on red alert. As he must be. He knows that the hunger they felt last week is not the exclusive preserve of the Scotland team.
"I always felt that Welsh people and Scottish people are actually quite similar and they carry the same underdog story," he said.
"My instruction to the boys is that, if you feel like we were desperate last week, they're going to be on a whole other level of desperation tomorrow.
"And that's what I'm expecting from them. I'm expecting them to be really fired-up and want to play in front of their fans. And our preparation has shown that we really respect this side because we know how desperate they are, know how well coached they are.
"And as people, they're going to front-up for their country. So we're prepared."
Tuipulotu had kind words for Tandy, his former defence coach with Scotland and a man he says he owes much to.
"He was the first coach I had a personal relationship with when I moved a long way away from home [from Australia]," he said.
"I know you guys probably don't believe me, but if I'm around people I don't know, I'm very shy. I'm not shy now. But, when I first came over here, I was really shy.
"And he was one of the first coaches to put his arm around me. That had a massive effect on my rugby because I trusted him a lot and I confided in him a lot on stuff outside of rugby as well. He played a massive part of bringing me out of my shell.
"He saw the leader in me that maybe I didn't even see at that time. And he encouraged that side as well. So I owe a lot to him."
There is a limit to his gratitude, of course. He thinks the world of Tandy but is also, well, desperate to beat him.
It would be a seismic shock if Scotland were to fall over in Cardiff, but the hard-bitten visitors are keeping their guard up.
A few of them gathered outside a hostelry on St Mary Street in the early evening on Friday. Their mood? "Very, very confident," said one, "but at the same time very, very nervous."
As a study in Scottish rugby psyche, it was spot-on. As the saying goes, when you know, you know.