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The Dallas Mavericks (21–36, 11–11 Home) host the Sacramento Kings (13–46, 4–27 Away) on Thursday night in a matchup that should, on paper, favor the home team. Sacramento limps into town on the second night of a back-to-back, sporting the worst record in the league and a decimated roster. Dallas, meanwhile, is riding a two-game win streak despite missing key rotation pieces—proof that this team competes every night, even when the math says they shouldn’t.
Let’s scan the lines in search of value.
🏀 Fixture: Sacramento Kings (13–46, 4–27 Away) @ Dallas Mavericks (21–36, 11–11 Home)
📍 American Airlines Center — Dallas, TX
🕢 7:30 PM CST, February 26, 2026
📺 KFAA-TV / MavsTV / NBA App
📊 DraftKings Snapshot (as of 7:00 PM CST, Feb 26)
Spread: DAL -6.5 (–110) | SAC +6.5 (–105)
Total: 234.5 (O –110 / U –110)
Moneyline: DAL –270 | SAC +220
📉 Game Side Lean: Mavericks -6.5
Here’s the thing about this Mavericks team: they don’t quit. They show up to every game with the kind of pride that makes you wonder if anyone told them they’re supposed to be tanking. No Cooper Flagg (midfoot sprain). No P.J. Washington (ankle sprain, just happened Tuesday). No problem. They beat Indiana 134–130. They handled Brooklyn 123–114. They’re not rolling over for anyone.
The problem? They’re bringing a dagger to a sword fight every night.
Against the Celtics, Spurs, Lakers—teams with actual rosters—that dagger keeps them competitive but rarely gets them the win. Against Sacramento? The worst team in the league, on a back-to-back, with four road wins all season? The dagger might be enough.
Marvin Bagley III has been an absolute revelation since arriving in the Anthony Davis trade. He dropped 22 points in 20 minutes against Brooklyn. He’s averaging 13.0 points and 8.2 rebounds in five games with Dallas. The Kings have no noteworthy interior defense with Domantas Sabonis out for the year. Bagley should feast.
Klay Thompson remains the primary perimeter threat, and Sacramento’s 120.1 defensive rating (near-worst in the league) suggests he’ll have plenty of open looks. The Mavs are 11–11 at home for a reason—they protect the American Airlines Center even when they shouldn’t.
Dallas covers. Lottery-conscious fans rage-tweet into the void. The tank rolls backward.
🔮 Total Lean: Over 234.5
Both teams are running on fumes, but neither can defend. Sacramento allows 36.5% from three and posts a 120.1 defensive rating. Dallas has been scrappy on defense lately, but without Flagg and P.J. Washington, they’re leaking points in transition.
The Mavs shot 39.3% from three against Indiana and 34.8% against Brooklyn. Even in a slump, they found enough offense to put up 134 and 123 in those games. Sacramento’s back-to-back fatigue won’t stop them from running—they have nothing to lose and a lottery position to protect by losing.
This feels like an up-and-down game. Bagley gets his. Klay gets his. Sacramento’s role players (whoever’s healthy) chuck threes and pray. The math points over, even if the pace shouldn’t.
🎯 Player Props We Like
Maxime Raynaud Over 13.5 Points (–128)
Raynaud has been a steady contributor for Sacramento in limited opportunities, and with the Kings decimated by injuries (Sabonis, LaVine, Hunter all out for the season), someone has to score. Dallas has been leaking points in the paint without Flagg and P.J. Washington anchoring the defense, and Raynaud’s ability to finish around the rim should give him opportunities. He’s averaging 10.1 points per game on the season, but usage bumps when rotations thin out. On a back-to-back with no better options, Sacramento will feed him the ball. The line feels a touch high, but the matchup is right.
Marvin Bagley III Over 8.5 Rebounds (–109)
Bagley has been a rebounding machine since arriving in Dallas, averaging 8.2 boards in five games while playing just 23 minutes per night. Against Brooklyn, he grabbed five rebounds in 20 minutes. Against Indiana, he pulled down 11. Against Minnesota, 13. The Kings have no interior presence with Sabonis out, and Bagley’s been feasting on the offensive glass. Sacramento allows opponents to crash the boards at will, and with Flagg and P.J. Washington sidelined, Bagley’s usage and minutes should stay elevated. This feels like a clean over in a game where both teams will be trading misses.