2026 NCAA Tournament Projections: St. John's, Wisconsin Slide Following Losses

Nearly five decades into a Hall of Fame career, there aren’t many nights that qualify as unfamiliar territory for Rick Pitino. His résumé includes seven Final Fours and two national titles. Now at St. John's, he’s far more accustomed to making history than enduring it. But a 72-40 loss to UConn on Wednesday night was the wrong kind of milestone for Pitino. The team's 32-point defeat was the second-largest loss Pitino has suffered as the head coach of an AP-ranked team and the most lopsided setback of his three seasons at St. John’s. With the loss, the Red Storm slipped to the third No. 5 seed in FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy’s latest NCAA Tournament projections. [COLLEGE HOOPS: Takeaways From UConn's Win Over St. John's] The Red Storm weren’t alone. Wisconsin fell from the 7-line to the 8-line after a road loss to Oregon, while Utah State also dropped to the 8-line following a loss to San Diego State. Here is a complete look at DeCourcy's NCAA Tournament seed list: No. 1 seeds 1. Duke2. Michigan3. Arizona4. Connecticut No. 2 seeds 5. Iowa State6. Illinois7. Purdue8. Houston No. 3 seeds 9. Kansas10. Florida11. Gonzaga12. Nebraska No. 4 seeds 13. Virginia14. Michigan State15. Alabama16. Texas Tech No. 5 seeds 17. Arkansas18. Vanderbilt19. St. John's20. North Carolina No. 6 seeds 21. Tennessee22. Louisville23. BYU24. Villanova No. 7 seeds 25. UCF26. Kentucky27. Saint Mary's28. Saint Louis No. 8 seeds 29. Utah State30. Wisconsin31. Miami Hurricanes32. Miami RedHawks No. 9 seeds 33. NC State34. Iowa35. Georgia36. SMU No. 10 seeds 37. UCLA38. Missouri39. Clemson40. Texas A&M No. 11 seeds 41. Texas42. California43. Indiana v. 44. TCU45. Santa Clara v. 46. VCU No. 12 seeds 47. Belmont48. Yale49. South Florida50. Liberty No. 13 seeds 51. Stephen F. Austin52. UNC Wilmingon53. High Point54. Hawaii No. 14 seeds 55. Utah Valley56. Austin Peay57. North Dakota State58. Navy No. 15 seeds 59. Portland State60. East Tennessee State61. Wright State62. Merrimack No. 16 seeds 63. Appalachian State64. UMBC65. LIU66. Bethune-Cookman67. Southeast Missouri State68. Morgan State And it’s never too early to check in on the bubble. According to DeCourcy's seed list, Auburn, San Diego State, Virginia Tech and USC are the first four teams out of the tournament, while Ohio State, New Mexico, Seton Hall and Oklahoma State are the next four out. Selection Sunday is less than one month away, and this list will inevitably evolve. For now, DeCourcy’s latest seed list offers a clear snapshot of who’s rising, who’s falling and which programs are already building the résumés they’ll need when March arrives.