What do you expect from Shane Baz this year?

Mike Elias made a couple of unexpected trades this offseason. One was the trade for Shane Baz, a 26-year-old starting pitcher who has shown promise but mixed results in his Major League career. The Orioles sent three young prospects, including two first-round picks, to the Rays in exchange for Baz. The Rays also received a competitive balance draft pick in the deal. It was a big haul for the Rays, but the Orioles got back a pitcher who has three years before free agency.

After an injury-shortened but successful 2024 season, Baz struggled in 2025 with a 4.87 ERA in 31 starts for the Rays. For those looking for a silver lining in that high ERA, Baz had a respectable 3.86 ERA in 15 road starts to go along with an atrocious 5.90 home ERA. The Rays played their 2025 home games at Steinbrenner Field, the spring training home of the New York Yankees. That park is not suitable for regular Major League baseball, but the Rays were forced there after Hurricane Milton destroyed the roof on Tropicana Field.

Baz allowed 26 home runs last year, 18 of which came at Steinbrenner Field. His BABIP at home was .323 vs .283 on the road. Meanwhile, his walk rate and strikeout rate were quite similar regardless of where he pitched. After the trade, Mike Elias raved about Baz, saying, “He’s got great underlying metrics, five plus pitches. I think he’s got a great arm and he’s a great athlete, and I think he hasn’t fully tapped into his ceiling yet, so we see him as a front-end-of-the-rotation starter.”

So what do you think will happen? Will Baz rise above his poor Steinbrenner Field numbers to help the Orioles improve in 2026? Or was Mike Elias a chump to send so many prospects to to the Rays in exchange for a 4.87 ERA pitcher? Here are Baz’s projections from ZiPS and Baseball Reference:

• ZiPS: 27 GS, 141 IP, 4.27 ERA, 20 HR
• Baseball Reference: 151 IP, 4.29 ERA, 21 HR, 1.258 WHIP

What are your expectations?